Beancounters at analyst outfit Gartner have added up some numbers and divided by their shoe size and worked out that despite the cocaine nose jobs of Wall Street’s attempts to write off AI, it is still growing.

Big G stated that global spending is expected to surpass $644 billion by 2025. That’s a 76.4 per cent jump from 2024.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle now slots generative AI squarely in the Trough of Disillusionment—the bit where everyone realises the shiny new tech doesn’t cure cancer, do your taxes or make toast. Not yet, anyway.

Gartner Distinguished VP Analyst John Lovelock said that we won’t see AI achieve full productivity until 2026. Until then, the market will see fewer “ambitious projects” and a glut of awkward product bolt-ons that nobody asked for.

Case in point: Humane’s AI Pin—pitched as the next-gen interface, now landfill fodder. Microsoft also faced criticism for integrating Copilot into everything from Office to Windows with the subtlety of a brick.

Still, the big bucks continue to come. Gartner projects that AI-infused smartphones alone will hit $438 billion by 2026, with AI PCs grabbing another $146 billion. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure, IaaS, and managed services are all poised for eye-watering growth—think 132 per cent CAGRs or higher.

However, Lovelock warns against confusing device sales with demand. “Consumers will be forced to purchase” AI-loaded gear just to keep up, he noted—hardly a glowing endorsement of market enthusiasm.

The real cash cow might be GenAI consulting—telling companies how not to waste millions building Copilot clones. That sector is expected to grow at a 111.8 per cent CAGR.

Gartner said that the market’s still riding high, but consumers aren’t fooled by smoke and mirrors anymore. Companies now face more challenging questions—what AI should do, where it shouldn’t meddle, and how to avoid being the following footnote in the AI hype hangover.